This paper aims to list the possible risk of water resources with fully considering of multiple factors, and analyse the factors influence on the shortage of water resources, and finally put forward optimization strategy and reasonable suggestions through a systematic qualitative analysis. More specifically, (1) establishing four models to measure water supply capacity: From the natural environment, social water, economic factors, and the new technology factors to create the model, (2) taking Beijing as a survey centre, to get the weight of each risk factor to draw the top 5 main risk factors, (3) building the equation by multiple linear regression, through the curve fitting analysis to predict water status in Beijing city for the past15 years, (4) making an intervention plan and modify model parameters on the basis of economy and environment, and (5) Based on the intervention plan, time variable is modified to predict whether Beijing will be affected by water shortage in the future.